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Lula's Surprise Victory in Brazil: How Prediction Markets Got It Wrong

World News

Lula's Surprise Victory in Brazil: How Prediction Markets Got It Wrong

Lula wins Brazil runoff after prediction markets favored Bolsonaro

CNBC

Lula wins Brazil runoff after prediction markets favored Bolsonaro

While prediction market odds pointed to a clear Bolsonaro victory, Lula emerged the winner in a tight race.

Lula bucks prediction markets with Brazilian presidential win

The Hill

Lula bucks prediction markets with Brazilian presidential win

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva bucked prediction market odds with his unlikely win in the Brazilian presidential runoff election this weekend. On Sunday, Lula was rated an underdog...

Retail bias or thin liquidity? Polymarket’s Brazil odds face scrutiny

Cryptopolitan

Retail bias or thin liquidity? Polymarket’s Brazil odds face scrutiny

Polymarket predicted Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had about a 20% chance of winning the Brazilian election. However, Lula won on Sunday despite his low odds, a blow to the prediction market world...

Brazil's Lula To Defeat Bolsonaro, Pollster Projects

HuffPost

Brazil's Lula To Defeat Bolsonaro, Pollster Projects

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will win the country’s presidential election, pollster Datafolha projects

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